Gulf Airlines Restore 82% of Flights After Iran Conflict Ceasefire

Gulf airlines are restoring operations after nearly four months of disruption caused by the Iran conflict, with flight activity recovering to 82% of pre-war levels as a ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran improves prospects for regional aviation.

Data from Flightradar24 shows several carriers have already returned to or exceeded their flight volumes recorded on Feb. 27, the day before the conflict began. Gulf Air and Kuwait Airways have recently exceeded 100% of their Feb. 27 flight volumes, while Emirates, Qatar Airways, and Etihad Airways are operating at or near 90% of previous capacity.

The recovery follows an interim agreement signed this week by the United States and Iran to end the conflict, with both countries expected to discuss implementation of the ceasefire. The agreement could remove many of the operational constraints that have affected airlines since the conflict began, including airspace closures, airport disruptions, and restrictions on flight corridors.

Throughout the conflict, Iranian missile and drone attacks forced repeated flight diversions, airport closures, and changes to established air routes across the Gulf. Airlines were required to concentrate flights through a limited number of approved aviation corridors, increasing operational complexity while raising safety concerns for passengers and flight crews.

James Halstead, managing partner of Aviation Strategy, said the end of hostilities would allow airlines to restore operations across the region. “The end of hostilities would lead to the reopening of the region’s airspace, allowing regional carriers to fully resume their operations,” Halstead said. “If conditions return to normal, I expect airlines to resume normal operations and return to full capacity.”

Recovery levels vary among Gulf carriers: Gulf Air and Etihad have each reached approximately 93% of their February flight volumes, Kuwait Airways has recovered to 86%, while Qatar Airways is operating at 87% of its pre-conflict level. Emirates has recovered to 86% of its pre-conflict flight volume. Low-cost airlines continue to trail larger network carriers. Air Arabia has restored about 75% of its previous operations, while Flydubai has recovered to approximately 57% of its pre-war flight schedule.

The disruption also affected international carriers. Several European and Asian airlines suspended or significantly reduced services to destinations across the Middle East as governments and aviation regulators maintained travel advisories and operational warnings. Australia eased its travel guidance this week for several Middle Eastern countries, potentially supporting demand through Gulf transit hubs. However, the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) continues to advise against operations in parts of the region due to ongoing security risks. EASA said it will evaluate recent developments when reassessing its conflict-zone warning, which remains in effect through June 24. “It is still too early to determine whether the observed de-escalation will result in a sustained reduction of risks to civil aviation,” the agency told Reuters.

While operations continue to recover, airlines remain focused on rebuilding passenger confidence after months of uncertainty. Emirates CEO Tim Clark said last week that the airline’s priority is to reassure travelers about safety and operational reliability as services normalize. Etihad has introduced additional measures to encourage travel demand, offering complimentary medical travel insurance for visitors traveling to Abu Dhabi between July and December.

The conflict’s effects have extended beyond the Gulf region. Higher jet fuel prices during the hostilities increased operating costs, particularly for airlines without fuel-hedging programs. Although fuel prices have since moderated, carriers across Europe and Asia experienced schedule disruptions, aircraft repositioning challenges, and operational inefficiencies.

The aviation industry’s financial outlook also deteriorated as the conflict continued. Earlier this month, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) reduced its 2026 global airline profit forecast by nearly half. IATA now projects combined industry net profits of US$23 billion in 2026, substantially lower than its previous forecast of approximately US$41 billion and below the US$45 billion reported for 2025.

Why it matters

For the global travel trade, the restoration of Gulf airline capacity is a critical signal for connectivity between Europe, Asia, and Africa. The Gulf carriers serve as major transit hubs for long-haul itineraries, and their return to near-normal operations will ease pressure on tour operators and bedbanks that rely on these routes. However, the uneven recovery among low-cost carriers and the continued caution from EASA suggest that full normalisation may take months. The IATA profit downgrade also underscores that the financial damage from the conflict will persist even as operations resume, potentially affecting pricing and capacity decisions for the remainder of 2026.